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There are four major factors that may contribute to score fluctuations test-to-test:
The biggest factor here is content, because the ACT pulls from such a super wide range of content areas. On any test. you should expect questions from Algebra, Geometry, Trigonometry, and Pre-calculus curricula, along with seemingly random riddle / puzzle-type questions. How does that affect your score? Well, depending on how much of the content you’re familiar with, your preparedness for this section will fluctuate test to test. Of course, if you know every single content item, you won’t ever be surprised. However, if you have gaps in your content knowledge, you could get ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ depending on what shows up on each test. For example, let’s say you’ve prepared some, but not all, of the popular pre-calculus and advanced trigonometry topics (conic equations, matrices, complex numbers, vectors, sine / cosine / tangent curves, law of sines / cosines, etc) -- depending on the test form, you will feel variations in difficulty test to test. If topics you are familiar with are on a certain test, you perceive it to be manageable. If not, you walk away thinking that form was impossible. In other words, one test isn’t necessarily easier or harder than the next. Some math sections just do a better job of exposing your weaknesses. The takeaway: your score is (at least in part) determined by how well the questions match up with the content areas you’ve covered.This creates variance in your score test to test. The only way to reduce this variance is to cover more topics.
A major difficulty students face while sitting for the ACT is timing. Your score is going to fluctuate if you struggle to finish the math section. If you guess on the last ten questions, you may get lucky and guess three or four correctly. On the flip side, you may get unlucky and guess none correctly. This creates a huge difference in potential scores. Generally, the best way to pick up your pace and eliminate the need to guess is getting more comfortable with the material. This is a common theme of this post, but at the end of the day, the ACT math section is a content section. The more comfortable you are with a content item, the more quickly (and accurately!) you are going to handle it.
Another major contributor to variance in scores is execution. Nobody is perfect, and that is especially evident in math sections. Many problems involve several steps, where opportunities to make a mistake abound. Even the best math students make ‘silly’ mistakes, and if you have an especially sloppy test, your score is going to dip below what you’re used to. That doesn’t mean you were less prepared for that exam than before; it means that if you want to hit the score you are capable of, you need to execute well.
Finally! Nearly every student will have to guess on some questions (not because they’ve run out of time, but because they simply don’t know the answer). Ideally, you’ve done your best to eliminate some choices you know are incorrect. So let’s say there are five questions where you have a ½ or ⅓ probability of guessing the correct choice -- the number of these questions you guess correctly will naturally change test to test. Similar to above, fluctuations in score here don’t necessarily reflect your preparedness for the section.
All of these factors add up to the potential for large swings in scores from test to test. The biggest and most controllable of these factors is content: preparation here pays off. Cover as much content as you can, and your score will go up. Overall, it’s important to take a macro view when you are prepping for the ACT math section. Everybody wants to see improvement week to week, but you need to understand that there will be blips. Variation is natural, and you can’t let it derail momentum or demotivate you. Control what you can, put in consistent effort, and your score should go up considerably over time.